Many a career-ending break with President Donald Trump was a career suicide for ambitious GOP lawmakers in recent years. This might be a boon to Rep. Mike Gallagher.
Top party officials in D.C., and back home in Wisconsin believe the fourth-term Congressman and the new head of China Select Committee represent their best chance at winning the Senate seat in 2024.
They must convince him to run.
A former Marine, the 39-year old is widely considered a rising star in GOP because of his strong stance on China policy as well as his prolific fundraising. Key Republicans believe that Trump’s criticisms might help him gain credibility with voters they have lost in recent elections. His nomination would be a clear sign that the party is changing gears and learning from 2022.
Gallagher has been vague about his plans. People close to him claim that he isn’t inclined to challenge Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin who is a formidable campaigner as well as fundraiser. They also acknowledge that Gallagher’s split with Trump over Jan. 6 and recent insistence that the former president “lost[his] support” will make it difficult to navigate, especially in a potentially messy primaries, due to Trump’s enormous sway over this party in recent years.
Gallagher’s defeat in the contest would not only affect Republicans’ chances of winning the Senate in 2024 but also highlight the challenges the party faces in finding the right electoral formula for a post-Trump world.
Senior Wisconsin Republicans want to find a candidate to bring back the moderate and independent voters from key suburbs that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.
There are signs that the ex-president’s grip on GOP leadership is starting to slip. He has not been able to sway other presidential candidates, and polling suggests that he would face stiff competition from Florida Governor. Ron DeSantis is one of the potential candidates. According to a Marquette Law Poll, DeSantis was ahead of Trump in Wisconsin’s 2016 GOP primary. However, Trump’s position in the national primary polls has improved. Many in the party have rallied around Trump once again due to the impending indictment in a case involving hush money.
A Wisconsin Republican who is close to Gallagher was allowed anonymity to discuss their private conversations. He dismissed the idea that Trump’s public breakup would negatively impact him in a future GOP primary. One person mentioned that Gallagher didn’t vote for Trump to be impeached or authorize an independent commission to investigate what happened at the U.S. Capitol. The person stated that Gallagher’s relative lean legislative record in Wisconsin is Gallagher’s greatest vulnerability.
The Republican requested anonymity to speak about private conversations and said that Trump has not been as focused on domestic affairs. Trump is not the Achilles’ heel.
Gallagher’s popularity in the party has increased rapidly since his first election to Congress in 2016, which was the same year Trump assumed the White House. This is especially true in his role of a leading voice in China policy. As Trump took aim at China’s unfair trade practices and other malign activities with his harsh stance, Gallagher reaffirmed that hard-nosed stance. However, the economic fallout of the ensuing war on trade fell on U.S. Agriculture, Gallagher’s top industry. When asked if Trump’s recent campaign proposal would increase tariffs on Chinese goods which has raised alarm among other farm state Republicans the new head to the House China Select Committee stated that he was unaware of the proposal by the former president to overhaul U.S.-China trade relations.
Despite Trump’s tensions, many Republicans now believe Gallagher could be the best candidate to oust Baldwin. He is a battle-tested incumbent Democrat who has amassed a large war chest.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont. Senator Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who leads Senate Republicans’ efforts to flip the chamber, expressed his excitement about the possibility of the congressman joining in the race.
Daines stated that Mike Gallagher would make a great candidate. “He’s the type of candidate who, with his distinguished service and time in Congress could win both primary and general elections,” Daines said.
Brian Schimming (the chair of the Republican party in the state), stated that if Mike was allowed to enter, everyone would be able to see the complete package.
Trump’s specter is however looming. Wisconsin Republicans expect Trump to campaign in Wisconsin around the time of the June state GOP convention, if not earlier. In July 2024, the Republicans will hold their national convention at Milwaukee.
Gallagher insists for now that he is focusing on his new high-profile post as the House GOP’s most prominent China hawk and not on any future campaigns.
Wisconsin Republicans who know the congressman are describing him as “whip smart” but also “incredibly risk-averse” and “extremely deliberate,” sometimes to the point that he is slow to make decisions. He is expected to leave the House following his current term or his next term, due to his efforts to limit House members’ terms to six.
According to Republicans, Gallagher beat his last Democratic challenger 30 points in one semi-swing region left in the state. He is also interested in a 2028 bid for Ron Johnson’s replacement, should the current GOP senator decide to retire as expected. Or a possible 2026 run for governor. Baldwin is a formidable opponent, with her own fundraising and retail politics.
Gallagher was a former foreign policy adviser to the Wisconsin governor and could be a candidate for the White House in 2024. According to one Wisconsin GOP lawmaker, and another Republican who was allowed anonymity to discuss their private conversations with Gallagher, Scott Walker may be interested in pursuing a role within the administration. He would be able to use his knowledge on China and foreign policies in a role such as national security advisor, Navy secretary, or secretary of state.
One of the Republicans said that Mike has many opportunities.
While the Wisconsin GOP field awaits Gallagher’s 2024 plans, Baldwin is making her own moves. According to two people who are familiar with the plans, Baldwin is preparing to officially launch her campaign soon after Wisconsin’s closely watched state supreme Court race on April 4. Baldwin, who has been able to shake off the national Democratic brand for decades, has outperformed other Democrats in the state, including Gallagher’s northeast district, which covers the city of Green Bay, the suburbs, and large stretches of dairy farms and small towns, as well as tribal lands.
Senior Wisconsin Democrats think that Baldwin’s past campaign success will not be a factor in her upcoming race for reelection. They believe the outcome of her upcoming race will be closer and she will win or lose on the margins, just like other statewide elections in recent years. According to two sources familiar with the campaign plans, Scott Spector, Baldwin’s long-time aide, is set for a senior position in her reelection effort.
According to sources familiar with the plans, Roger Roth, a former state senator, is another possible GOP challenger who could jump in if Gallagher does not choose to run. He won the Republican primary for lieutenant Governor last August.
The Bryan Steil current Reps. and Tom Tiffany have been considered as potential candidates in the event that redistricting forces some members to leave their seats. (Steil and other House GOP members have rushed to defend Trump via letters and Twitter since the news about Trump’s possible indictment. Gallagher’s office has avoided the topic, instead tweeting about local school sports champions and student loans. Trump’s former chief of staff Reince Poncebus was heavily involved with the midterms. This raised questions about whether he was planning to run for the White House.
David Clarke is a Trump acolyte who was also a former Milwaukee Sheriff. Former GOP Rep. Sean Duffy, former Senate and gubernatorial candidates Kevin Nicholson, and Eric Hovde (a wealthy Republican businessman who ran unsuccessful Senate campaigns in 2012) are some other names that were mentioned in conversations with GOP officials.
Another Wisconsin Republican admitted that many of these candidates had “used up a lot their political capital” in previous races. It’s not a deep bench.
Gallagher seems to be in control of everything.
Gallagher, when asked earlier this month if he was interested in challenging Baldwin next election, stated that his sole focus is on the CCP select committee and not 2024.
He then added, “And providing the highest constituent services for northeast Wisconsin.”
