Arizona Poll: Republican Blake Masters in Statistical Tie With Democrat Mark Kelly; Lake and Hobbs in Dead Heat

FILE – Arizona Secretary Of State Katie Hobbs addresses members of Arizona’s Electoral College, Phoenix, December 14, 2020. James W. Clark was arrested by the FBI Friday, July 29, 2022 for threatening to bomb Hobbs after the 2020 election in which former President Donald Trump lost the state. Clark, 38, from Falmouth Mass. threatened to blow up Hobbs’ personal space using an online form that was maintained by the Secretary-of-State’s election department. If she didn’t resign, Clark. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin, Pool, File)

According to a poll, Republicans Blake Masters and Kari lake are statistically tied with their Democrat counterparts in Arizona’s U.S. Senate- and Governor’s races.

According to the CBS/YouGov poll released Wednesday, 48 percent of Arizona’s likely voters support Masters and 51 percent support Senator Mark Kelly (D–AZ), who is running for reelection. Undecided voters make up 1%. Masters is within the polling margin, making this race a statistical tie.

Lake and Katie Hobbs, the Democratic Secretary of State, are locked in a dead heat for the governor’s race. Each candidate received 49 percent of the likely voter response. Only one percent of polling participants are still undecided. The consistent poll with the FiveThirtyEight average polling, which had both candidates at 47% as of Wednesday morning. The latest six polls on the site had Lake or Hobbs leading by just one point. However, the other three had Lake leading by four points.

Respondents were also asked to rank the most important issues in the race. Participants responded most strongly to the following issues: “Economy” (81%), “Inflation”, (78%) and “Immigration” (66%). At 54 percent, “Abortion”, which received the seventh highest number of “Very Important” responses, was the most important.

Respondents to immigration say that 58 percent think the U.S. should be more strict with immigrants crossing the border. Only 24 percent believe the U.S. should be easier on these immigrants.

A majority of registered voters (56%) also stated that their communities had changed “a lot” and “some” due to “the arrival of immigrant groups. However, 70% of respondents said the changes were for the worse.

Voters trust Masters and Lake more than their Democrat counterparts to secure the border. Participants believe Masters will support border security policies, while only 29 percent believe Kelly will. Breitbart News reported that Kelly has repeatedly voted in favor of border security measures. Similar results were seen in the poll: only 28% believe Hobbs will support policies that stop migrants flowing, and 57 percent say Lake will.

Survey respondents were 1,164 Arizona residents. Data regarding the preferred candidates in the U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial elections were available. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

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