From four to six. It began as most Buffalo forecasts do. They didn’t specify inches or feet. It’s possible for residents to be surprised by a meteorological phenomenon in a region that is known for its unpredictable weather. The forecast moved closer to the “feet”, rather than the “inches” in the days leading to New York’s largest single-day snowfall. I felt the sea breeze earlier in the week as I stopped by Tim Hortons for coffee. I felt something unsettling, like an Indian reading the concentric circles of nature.
The snowfall was measured in feet the day before.
The partial differential equation is the basis of a weather model. This equation doesn’t produce one result but describes the transition between states. For example, take a single-variable calculator function that represents Usain Bolt’s acceleration during a 100 meter sprint.
A slight change in the inputs can have a significant impact on any partial differential equation. And the input data for weather forecasts–things like dew point or temperature–inherently have some margin of error. To determine the most probable weather events (snowfall, rain, etc.), the weather forecaster must assess the margin of error for each major weather data point. The forecaster runs the model thousands times and counts how many times a specific event is listed among the results. For example, “90% chance for rain”. Forecasters attempt to “calibrate” their models so that if it predicts rain at 90%, it actually rains 90% of the time.
The average American is terrible at math. Many locals were puzzled when the NFL announced that the game of the Buffalo Bills would be moved from Buffalo to Detroit the day before the storm. Is this not snow? Groceries were always busy. Plow crews were already on war footing. Soon, other critical infrastructure crews followed their lead.
Buffalonians made up for any lack of foresight by being resilient.
I am located in the heart of critical infrastructure, close to blue-collar America. But, I belong to the laptop class as demonstrated by my first encounter with the storm. As I was walking outside to pick up my Doordash order from the store, it fell on me like a heavy downpour. It continued for several hours, then stopped for about an hour and resumed on Friday evening.
The morning of the storm I got up early to go to work and was ready for war. My small German sedan became stuck on dangerous roads, which would be a common theme throughout the day. I tried to solve the problem on my own but was unsuccessful so I called my employer to request that a truck be sent to my aid. I was able to resolve the problem before they arrived. The snowmobile driver who was supposed to help me arrived just two hours later than I was.
This level of dedication was typical of the people who manage Western New York’s critical infrastructure. They conquered this challenge. The roads were still passable despite snow falling at twice as fast as plows can keep pace. A few thousand customers were without power for less than an hour each. This is a remarkable feat in a minor storm, much less a multi-foot snowstorm. There was no loss of heat, water or sewerage. These are services that depend on field crews working under difficult conditions to keep operations going. Hospitals were stocked with food and supplies and staff even had hotels to accommodate them so that they didn’t have the inconvenience of commuting.
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Transport crews released those who believed they were legally and practically allowed to drive on snowy roads. They then got stuck. The crews were too tired to wait for the storm to end before they began clearing the snow with dump trucks.
As amusing was my commute home. It was difficult to get home due to road blockages. To avoid getting stuck in the snow, I needed to maintain control and speed. A state employee used a backhoe to free me from paralysis and added a mountain of snow on my front to keep his bucket from getting into my face.
These workers’ successes are of little comfort for the five people who lost their lives in the storm or those who sustained serious property damage such as the Hamburg historic bowling alley. Poorer responses could have resulted in three-figure casualties, given the possibility of utility interruptions and the number of motorists stranded. Most Buffalo residents were able to enjoy a few days on television and hot chocolate. Buffalo, unlike other cities that have experienced similar meteorological events to theirs, will not need a celebrity fundraiser.
