Deal or No Deal Debt Ceiling Edition

President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have a deal, but will House Republicans go for it? The post Deal or No Deal: Debt Ceiling Edition appeared first on The American Conservative.

Rep. Chip Roy delivered a simple message on Thursday: “Hold your damn line” in regards to Republican attempts to achieve spending cuts as a trade-off for an increase of the debt ceiling. Kevin McCarthy, House Speaker, retreated over the holiday weekend.

McCarthy made a deal with the White House of President Joe Biden that seems to have negated many of what Republicans were about to achieve. McCarthy’s House GOP had previously passed the Limit, Save, Grow Act, a comprehensive bill which would have cut large portions of Biden’s inflationary agenda, and limited future spending, in exchange for a modest raise to the debt limit. The deal that is now being debated in the House Rules Committee, and possibly on the floor of the House, does not do this.

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“So far, in this Congress the driving force in Washington is the united House majority. We resolved in January concrete details on how we would move forward together. It has had a significant impact on the first few months of Congress. Imagine Kevin McCarthy’s decision to give up that advantage,” said Rep. Dan Bishop, of North Carolina at a press conference on Tuesday. Can you estimate the cost of giving up that advantage?

The legislation that McCarthy and Biden agreed to would suspend the current debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion until January 2025. This is a huge victory for Biden, the Democrats and for the uniparty as a whole.

The real debt ceiling debate — a dollar increase in the debt limit — is pushed to a lame-duck session of Congress following a presidential election. The Treasury Department could borrow as much money as needed to pay America’s bills for the remainder of Biden’s first term. Biden and Democrats will likely abuse this power in order to consolidate their structural advantages within the administrative state.

By extending the debt ceiling until January 2025, the issue of the debt limit and fiscal irresponsibility in general is no longer a hot topic during elections. The GOP nominee in 2024 would not have any say in debt ceiling negotiations if he wins. The brazenness of uniparty in its swampy splendor is also on display during the spending bill negotiations. McCarthy punted the election to January 2025. This removes what could have been an enormous cudgel Republicans would use against the uniparty in the 2024 campaign cycle.

Bishop stated that the January 2025 date “removes this issue from the national discussion during the upcoming presidential election.” What better way to kneecap a Republican president than by taking that issue off his or her plate?

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This is a huge concession. One might assume that Republicans, in exchange for the debt ceiling extension, would have been able to secure many of the budget cuts they passed through the Limit, Save, Grow Act.

Nope.

Limit, Save, Grow Act was designed to cut $80 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act that had been given to IRS to expand operations and train 87,000 IRS agents. The deal reached over the weekend would only rescind $1.38 billion in IRS funding. In 2024 and 2025, another $20 billion that has not been spent will be used for other non-defense programs. Don’t worry: Democrats don’t have a track record of using the IRS to target their political opponents.

The government would also have revoked $50-$60 billion in unused Covid-19 funds under the Limit, Save, Grow Act, as Biden has himself declared that the pandemic was over. Biden and McCarthy’s deal rescinds approximately half of the Covid-19 money that was not used.

The Limit, Save, Grow Act, however, would have eliminated about $1.2 trillion of these subsidies, which have been funneled towards the ultra-rich and Chinese-owned companies.

Biden did not agree to the Limit, Save, Grow Act ending his student loan forgiveness plan, but he did agree to the end of the student loan repayment freeze beginning in August. The Limit, Save, Grow Act did not include any provisions for increasing welfare work requirements. However, there were modest increases. The REINS Act, which had been incorporated into Limit, Save, Grow Act in order to rein the administrative state, is nowhere to be seen.

Further, future spending cuts Republicans were able to pass through the House – reducing FY24 expenditures to FY22 levels while capping growth in spending at 1 percent per year for the following decade – have been weakened. Republicans were given a two-year spending cap instead of a ten-year one, and these caps are no longer stipulations but suggestions.

Chip Roy, a Texas Representative, said at a press conference held on Tuesday with Bishop and members of the House Freedom Caucus, “Not ONE Republican should vote in favor of this deal. This is a bad agreement. “No one sent us to this country to borrow $4 trillion more and get nothing in return.”

Roy stated that the Republicans could only expect “a spending freeze over a few years” if they were “really generous.”

Bishop said that the deal between McCarthy and Biden was “full of cosmetics, artificialities, things which have been flatly lied about.”

Roy added later: “There are only two options.” First: “Stick with the bill we passed. It’s an excellent bill. It is sitting in the Senate. They could pass it and then send it to President.” Roy’s second suggestion was that McCarthy withdraw the 99-page piece of legislation. Roy made an aside that said, “I don’t believe he has a majority in his own conference.”

He continued, “Right away, Covid recisions, Covid of $29 billion, are in the bill.” “They have already taken this in the bill and swept 22 billion, and then just put it over to the Department of Commerce as play money. Tell Janet Yellen to take that money and the IRS money and tell her, “You’re going to pay every bill you have, and we’re going sit down and do the work for the American people.” Don’t tell my you’re going to put me in a bind for $4 trillion just because you won’t do your job. This is what McCarthy should have said to the President of the United States.”

Roy’s prediction, that McCarthy would need to rely on more Democratic support than Republican to get the deal passed through the House, could come true. Other House GOP members, including Reps. Wesley Hunt and Cory Mills as well as Nancy Mace and Kat Cammack came out against McCarthy-Biden’s deal.

The deal may not even make it out of the Rules Committee. In January, as part of the negotiations that led to McCarthy’s victory in the speaker race, conservative hardliners secured a larger representation on the House Rules Committee. They now hold one-third the seats of the majority. Roy and Ralph Norman, both of South Carolina’s hardline conservatives have stated that they will vote against this deal.

Washington Post reports that Democrats in the Rules Committee have indicated that they are ready to vote against this deal. This means that the focus is on Rep. Thomas Massie from Kentucky who has not yet stated whether he supports or opposes pushing the deal forward. McCarthy and Biden would be sent back to square one if Massie votes no.

McCarthy’s decision not to negotiate a hard debt ceiling agreement with his Republican colleagues may have more behind it than they thought. Republicans and Biden’s Democrats will need to negotiate an increase of federal funds in September or risk a shutdown. McCarthy may see this as a good opportunity for Republicans because a default on the government is a much bigger issue than a shutdown.

McCarthy must first ensure that his tenure as Speaker lasts through September. Rep. Perry refused to answer a reporter’s question about whether Freedom Caucus would be willing to use a motion to vacate McCarthy if he goes through with the deal. He said, “We’re dealing right now with the bill in front of us.” Bishop, who was standing behind him, raised his hand as Rep. Andy Biggs giggled.

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