Do we need to be concerned about Putin’s plans to place nukes in Belarus? Most likely not

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest round of nuclear saber rattling has drawn condemnation from the West, but analysts say it's a tactic to raise fears of nuclear escalation.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest round nuclear saber-rattling has drawn condemnation and concern from the West. However, his promise to station tactical nukes in Belarus could do more to expose Russia’s weaknesses than to shift the dynamics in the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s announcement to deploy weapons on territory of Moscow’s trusted ally and neighbor — which came as Russia’s military struggles to claim new victories on the battlefield — was condemned as “dangerous” by NATO. Kyiv stated that it threatened “the international system of security as a whole.”

According to military analysts, the move is not the latest attempt to use nukes to intimidate Ukraine’s ally’s, and could not only widen the ever-growing chasm with Moscow but also potentially test Russia’s growing friendship to China.

In an interview on Russian state television Saturday night, Putin made the announcement. He said that Belarus, which borders three NATO member countries, and Ukraine, was not in violation nuclear nonproliferation arrangements and would, in fact mirror Washington’s decades-long stationing of its nuclear weapons at Europe.

After violent protests almost toppled Europe’s last dictator in 2020, the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was a loyal ally who Putin supported, Putin said.

It took the Belarusian leader nearly a week for him to respond. He said in a Friday address that he had intensified negotiations with Putin “on nuclear weapons return to Belarus” to “safeguard” his nation, which he claimed was under threat from the West.

Belarus, which has not acquired its nuclear weapons from Russia, but was able to transfer its stock to Russia in the 1990s, isn’t a party in the war in Ukraine. However, Moscow used its territory to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.

February 27, 2023 03.12

Andrey Baklitskiy a senior researcher at United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research based in Geneva, stated that Putin’s promise to place his tactical nuclear weapons there won’t give him any advantage on the battlefield of Ukraine.

Baklitskiy stated to NBC News that Russia would not be given any new capabilities by this move. “Nuclear weapons played only a political and informative role in the war until now,” Baklitskiy said to NBC News. Therefore, every side will use this decision for a talking point.

Russia will claim that it is supporting an ally and accuse the West hypocrisy about NATO nuclear sharing. Baklitskiy said that Ukraine and NATO would condemn Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling and seek international support in order to pressurize Moscow.

Russia is home to the largest nuclear arsenal in the world with nearly 6,000 warheads according the Federation of American Scientists (a Washington-based non-profit policy research and advocacy group).

Putin has repeatedly stated that he will not hesitate unleash this arsenal should Russia’s security and existence be endangered. He has also increased those threats in times of significant setbacks.

Due to the fact that Russia’s current ground offensive has not made any significant breakthroughs, Russia’s nuclear arsenal is still a major aspect of its military power and commands respect from the West, according to Christopher Tuck, a specialist in conflict resolution at King’s College London.

Tuck said that Putin’s recent nuclear rhetoric echoes “an existing Russian pattern, resorting to vague nuke policy announcements in order to divert attention away from difficulties elsewhere.”

“The probable intent is to manipulate Western fears about nuclear escalation, and to contribute to the wearing down of Western support to Ukraine.”

Putin’s decision to support Belarus is an admission of “he is afraid” according to Mykhailo Polyak, a Ukrainian adviser, in a Tweet last Sunday. Podolyak said that all he could do was scare people with tactics.

Washington and its allies have so far responded to Putin’s comments with a measured but critical tone.

In separate statements, the State Department and the National Security Council told NBC News that they had not seen any reason to adjust their own strategic nuclear position or any indications that Russia was preparing to use a nuke weapon.

On Tuesday, President Joe Biden spoke to reporters and called Putin’s plans “worrisome.”

While NATO was critical about Putin’s comments, it agreed with Washington by saying that it has not observed any changes in Russia’s nuclear posture that would cause it to change its position.

Josep Borrell, the European Union’s chief of foreign policy, said that Putin’s intentions were a “threat” to European security and that the E.U. We are ready to respond with additional sanctions.

Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, said Monday that the West’s response will not alter Putin’s plans.


Tactical ballistic missiles are fired during joint Russian and Belarusian military drills in Gomel, Belarus last February.


Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

These threats are amidst broader nuke tensions and the collapse of the last arms control treaty between Russia and the U.S.

In response to Moscow’s refusal to supply data under the New START Treaty, the U.S. announced Tuesday that it would withhold some nuclear data from Russia. In February, Putin unilaterally suspended Russia from the treaty.

Russia and China have criticised Australia, Britain, and the U.S. for their deal regarding nuclear-powered submarines. However, experts believe that Putin’s Belarusian move could also lead to a split in this burgeoning alliance.

According to William Alberque (director of strategy, technology, and arms control at The International Institute for Strategic Studies), the announcement from Belarus could raise eyebrows in Beijing.

Putin and Xi jointly released a joint statement in which they stated that all nuclear powers must refrain from storing nuclear weapons beyond their own borders and must remove all foreign nuclear weapons.

When Mao Ning, China’s foreign minister spokeswoman, was asked about Putin’s remarks on Belarus Monday. She reiterated Beijing’s position, calling for a political solution in Ukraine and avoiding an nuclear crisis.

Alberque stated that Xi might have to reconsider the basis of cooperation with Russia if he wasn’t consulted about Putin’s announcement.

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