Could it be that the South African collapse, long predicted by pessimists could finally come to pass? It’s possible, according to the United States government.
The U.S. Embassy in Pretoria advised Americans living in South Africa that they should have at least seventy two hours worth of food, water and medicine in case of power failures. These outages have been unprecedented in recent weeks and have left many people without electricity for hours. The U.S. State Department’s Overseas Security Advisory Council met in January to discuss how to prepare for a complete collapse of South Africa’s power grid.
These alarm bells were sounded three years ago when Andre de Ruyter, Eskom’s CEO, resigned. He was appointed to the job to end corruption and stop rolling blackouts. His efforts were met with resistance at the highest levels of government, including from cabinet politicians. In 2021, “loadshedding”, or rolling blackouts, reached record levels. Last month, De Ruyter gave Annika Larsen an hour-long interview in which he revealed the entire story of Eskom corruption.
De Ruyter’s most shocking allegation was that he tried to assassinate De Ruyter by adding cyanide to his coffee on December 12, the day he resigned. He joked that he would never have a personalized cup of coffee, and it was a terrible idea. The complete lack of interest by law enforcement in investigating the assassination attempt is more disturbing than the attempted assassination. De Ruyter said that one of the workers who had been fixing the coffee machine broke on the day of poisoning “has since disappeared from work, and he’s gone missing.” “That remains to been investigated.” De Ruyter’s statements were taken by detectives who “inquired if I had been having problems with my sinuses.” I asked them if they knew cyanide. They did not respond.
Eskom’s best and last hope was De Ruyter. It is unlikely that the board will find another CEO capable of handling this difficult job, and willing to take on the risk of his life. De Ruyter’s tenure was dominated by criminal forces. They will likely continue their crimes without any obstacles and enrich themselves until they have nothing left to steal. In the event of a complete grid collapse, the dominos would be phone lines, traffic lights and internet. They would end up with looting and crime and civil unrest.
The pillar that brings the Rainbow Nation to its knees could be electricity. Why Eskom? Because Eskom is at the intersection between three of South Africa’s most important themes: incompetence, politics, and crime.
Eskom was prevented from raising rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s because of political reasons. Eskom desperately needed revenue to build new power stations or replace existing ones. Low electricity prices were seen as a perk after apartheid, so hikes were avoided out of fear of backlash. Eskom’s capacity to generate electricity was reduced to crisis levels, and attempts to repair it failed to materialize.
Many South Africans simply refuse to pay their electricity bills . This is also a political problem. Eskom cannot cut off electricity to the majority of Soweto residents ( about 80 percent), who aren’t paying. Eskom is therefore unable to collect the millions of rand it owes from delinquent customers. Even if Eskom does try to stop deadbeats, vandalism or illegal hookups make such efforts futile. Any Eskom crackdown on rampant theft would be met with violence,
Even the most experienced managers would find this difficult, but Eskom’s managers don’t have the best skills. Eskom, as a parastatal is subject to strict diversity targets under the Black Economic Empowerment laws. Its senior management was given the mandate in 1995 to reduce its white population to 70 percent by 1999, and to increase its black population to 50% by 1999. This goal was achieved by going from 75% to 75% black by 2005. Eskom’s head for human resources in 2008 announced that “Over the next five year…Eskom must appoint 2 new staff each day and it is insistent that one of them be a black woman.”
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These targets were repeated across all areas of South Africa’s economy and had the same effect: incompetence. Anthea Jeffery’s Bee: Helping or Hurting?” documents numerous instances in which people were killed because of the incompetence of hospital administrators and water inspectors who were hired through affirmative action. R.W. R.W. Johnson is the most popular writer in international media on South African affairs. In 2009, Johnson injured his foot while swimming in a lagoon. The resulting infection necessitated an amputation.
The electricity business is more expensive than water management. This is why crime was the third reason Eskom fell. Because Eskom’s black market value includes not only coal, but also wires, and equipment, it has been a target for mafia syndicates in ways that others utilities have not. Kyle Cowan a South African journalist, investigated many failures at Eskom facilities. He found that there were downed power lines and jammed coal mills. It is possible to attribute malice to incompetence, but as De Ruyter’s assassination attempt shows, both could be at work here. Eskom facility managers need bulletproof vests for their employees and armed guards to protect them.
Eskom’s problem is fundamentally complicated by the fact that Eskom cannot post a policeman on every employee to see what they are doing. It would take a lot of effort to solve such a large problem. This requires support from all levels of management, as well as law enforcement, politicians, bureaucrats, and other government officials. It is not likely that it will happen. De Ruyter came to the same conclusion, and he’s now planning to take a well-deserved vacation, somewhere out of the country that is not in the reach of assassins. “I believe it will be good to my health.”
