Despite the possibility of an escalation to levels never seen since the Cold War and unlike the Cuban missile crisis when communication was sporadic between Washington, Moscow, and Washington, there is no way to know. Gideon Rachman reported in the Financial Times that although some may assume there is more secret diplomacy than what the eye can see, those who are well-informed suggest there are very few channels with the Kremlin.
However, there are subtle indications that the lines may be, if they are not lighting up, dimming. Russia claims that they are always willing to communicate, but there seem to be recent signals from Moscow.
On October 26, Vladimir Putin tried an innovative channel of communication. sent a message through President Umaro Sissoco Embalo, Guinea Bissau. The president stated, “I was in Russia together with President Putin.” The president then said that Putin had asked him to send him the information he discussed with him, which he believes would be extremely important. He believes that there should be a direct dialogue between your countries.
This was not the Russian president’s first attempt. Putin called on Kiev on September 30 to “return back to the negotiation table.” On October 11 to respond to an offer by Turkey to mediate between Russia and the West. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia was open to this suggestion and that it “was willing to engage the United States of Turkey on ways to end war.”
Lavrov stated that Moscow would review any offer to meet Putin and Joe Biden at the G20 summit. On the same day, Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, made a statement to Lavrov. He stated that the Turkish Minister for Defense HulusiAkar felt that it was important to declare a ceasefire immediately to stop further deaths and restore peace and stability to the region. It was also noted that there was an agreement regarding the ceasefire.
Ten days later, Turkish President Recep Tyyip Erdogan stated that Putin seemed to be more open to negotiations.
Washington and Kiev have not responded to the flurry of offers. Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian President, has invoked an order prohibiting negotiations with Putin. The “U.S. And “U.S. . . have ruled out pushing or even nudging Ukraine towards the negotiating table. Zelensky responded positively to Putin’s message by refusing to engage in talks until Russia recognizes Ukraine’s borders, territory, and security. The State Department dismissed Lavrov’s declaration that Moscow was willing to engage with the U.S. in ways to end the conflict as “posturing”, and responded that Washington has “very few confidence” that Lavrov’s offer is genuine.
Biden responded to claims that Moscow might consider meeting Putin and Biden at the G20 summit. He said in a CNN interview, “I don’t see any reason to meet with him now” . He also stated that “I do not intend to meet with him.” Biden stated that he was not prepared to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine’s future, and said, “So I am not about to, neither is anyone else willing to,”
Officials from the United States have not only ruled out Biden meeting Putin at the G20 but they also put plans in order to ensure that Biden doesn’t run into Putin in a corridor or group photo.
Other voices have spoken out despite the White House’s insistence that communication lines be kept closed. Threety members from Biden’s House party sent a letter to President , asking to launch a “proactive diplomacy push”, redoubling efforts to find a framework for a ceasefire. . . .”
Although the White House did not respond to the request, the writing of the letter marked a shift in Capitol Hill’s tone. The Washington Post reported that it was the first time Democrats broke from the unanimous note in favor of Russia’s fight and openly advocated for negotiating. The letter was withdrawn by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (the leader of the Progressive Caucus, of which all signatories were also members), in response to pressure.
While some Democrats were writing to Biden in the House, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was speaking to Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister. Although the conversation may have been about avoiding accidental clashes between U.S.-Russian planes and ships in Baltic, the Pentagon reports that the Secretary spoke to Sergei Shoigu on the phone. According to Russian reporting the two discussed “current international security issues, including the situation within Ukraine.”
Two days later Shoigu called and the two men spoke again, having not spoken since May 13. Austin “reaffirmed the importance of continuing communication in the midst Russia’s illegal and unjustified war on Ukraine.”
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Shoigu was not the only one who spoke to Austin. Shoigu spoke with officials in France, Turkey and the U.K. on October 23. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace also expressed a desire to de-escalate the conflict. Similar to the letter to Biden’s, the comments of the British defense minister represent a potential shift in tone.
Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasim spoke to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, on October 24. This was the first meeting since May. According to reports, the two top generals agreed to “keep communication lines open”.
These contacts, while far from being negotiations, represent the first small openings in closed channels of communication. These openings are accompanied from the U.S. or U.K. whispers to negotiate or assist in negotiations. They are very small. They are small, but they could offer the first sign of a shift in tone, if they are accompanied by increased signals from Moscow that they may want to talk.
