It was painful to hear Kamala Harris, at the Munich Security Conference, uttering a series of catch phrases in a practiced staccato voice while trying to project statesmanship as fake as Madonna’s face.
“In the case Russia’s actions against Ukraine, we have reviewed the evidence, know the legal standards and there is no question: These are crimes towards humanity,” Harris declared. He added a warning to those who had committed these crimes and to their superiors, who were complicit in them: You will be held accountable.
Some people believe that Russia has committed war crimes including mass executions. However, two questions immediately arise: Were they also committed by the Ukrainians? Who evaluates and penalizes these crimes? Barack Obama and George W. Bush might have experienced firsthand the inexplicable, unprovable and implausible war crimes charge, as well as how easy it can be to avoid.
International relations is anarchic, because there are no global policemen. Nuclear powers are nuclear power for a reason: it discourages interference from other countries. Once you have lobbed the charge and promised retribution you will be expected to address a major issue. “How, Comrade?”
Jude Russo, Jude’s colleague, asked me why the Munich security conference is held. To this, I could only logically answer one question: Because the beer is solid. What else could explain the mind-numbing sessions of self-congratulation? Because there was no strategy debate among Westerners, it wasn’t a serious conference about strategy. It was a consensus, which is a problem because it undermines the purpose of having a conference.
Here’s Britain’s top middle-manager Rishi, sounding just like a first-year student who got a copy of John Ikenberry’s new essay. Putin gambled that our resolve would fail when he started this war. He is still betting that we will lose our nerve.” Sunak exclaimed behind the royal We. He said that Putin had gambled that Russia would lose its resolve and added that Britain was standing by freedom, democracy, and the rule of the law. Britain promised to be the first to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons. “The U.K. will help any country provide Ukraine with planes today, but we must also train Ukrainian pilots in advanced jet-flying techniques.”
It’s jolly good. However, Britain lacks the production capacity necessary to support such charity. Sunak’s royal You, therefore, refers in principle to America. It is possible to extrapolate the British interest in starting a war in eastern Europe from British history, in order to keep America out of the European Union. This strategy is extremely successful, and it was only designed to increase London’s power in D.C.
The only accidental voice Reason was French President Emmanuel Macron. His case for the forgotten goddess was at best incoherent. “I don’t think we should aim for total defeat of Russia by attacking Russia on its soil… These observers want to crush Russia. He said that France has never held such a position and will not do so again. He suggested that Russia should be brought back to the table to build a lasting peace.
He seems to be a strangely confused Frenchman about how an escalatory spiral operates. You don’t need to declare a war on Russia to end up having one, as attested by France’s own history prior to the First World War, where neither major powers wanted a war, but were forced into it anyway, due to competing spirals that include escalations and threats as well as war hysteria. France wants strategic autonomy but refuses massively to support the military, navy, and nuclear umbrella. Macron seeks balance with Russia, but refuses stop the NATO escalatory spiral. It is easy to make the decisions if you have military power. France can provide security coverage over Europe, and it is up to France to decide how far or how long. France can also increase its defense if Poland is able to do so. It is political theater, even if it doesn’t, would a cynic argue.
Soon, sobriety will be back. Slowly, the Russian war machine starts to spin up production. Soon the structural problems of Ukraine will be apparent. poll shows declining American support. This is despite inflation, crumbling infrastructure and crippling woke bureaucracy that opposes the way of life for the vast majority of American military recruit pool and their allies, who are sanctimonious, beggarly, and who take it out on the American people.
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“It’s worrying what’s coming,” said Kajsa Ollongren the Dutch defense minister. You’d bet that you didn’t think about earlier. Is the defense budget of Netherland still available?
A second, and perhaps more important, beast is waking up. China may be ready to join the fray . Hulk Hogan, the American IR scholar, has posed the same question: Whatchya gonna? The prudent realist strategy would be to ignore local wars or to find an equilibrium and reach a negotiated agreement while there is leverage.
We are now heading into the second year, and the Beijing strategists can’t believe their luck. The luck of Russia may run out and the hunter might soon find out what it’s like to be hunted. The neoconservatives, liberal primacists, and others will see this as another failure in deterrence and attempt to double down. The decision is up to the average American, however. It doesn’t really matter if the air over Donbas is as important as Ohio’s. In a recent interview , I stated that China’s desire to halt Russia’s fall was crucial. They want to slow down the U.S. and make it more difficult for them to win a European war. This is essentially reverse the current strategy against Russia. The U.S. and Europe can only deplete themselves in a war of attrition within an area of zero strategic significance, which will lead to unrivalled Chinese hegemony. No great power in human history has embarked at an alarming pace on building a huge navy, even if it was planning to do something bigger. It’s a tale as old as time.
