HBO’s Rome shows that one of the most iconic scenes takes place just before Julius Caesar crosses the Rubicon.
Mark Antony commends Caesar for being as calm as a cup water, even though he is about enter Rome as a blood-stained conqueror. Caesar replies, “I am glad that you appear so” without hesitation, before ordering his tribune play something more “cheerful” as the legions begin a march to Rome.
A former president was indicted recently on thinly drawn charges of misconduct regarding campaign money. This is similar to the level of political prosecution one might see in Latin America or Egypt.
This was previously unimaginable in the United States.
From senators to congresspersons, to a governor who could be a possible presidential candidate, the response was unanimity. However, outrage is not the same as reaction.
This prosecution means that the public has a consolidated image of the justice system in this country. It was long suspected that there were two tiers to the justice system, one for the regime and one for its enemies. The justice system becomes neutral when every crime committed in a city, from squatting and serious assaults and car-jacking, is ignored while a political rival is tried. The norm has been broken and the consequences will be long-lasting. Trump may not end up in jail, despite the #Resistance Twitter moans. However, the precedent set by Trump will only weaken the Republic. State neutrality will be eroded and delegitimization encouraged by one side. History has shown that this rarely ends well.
It is a simple truth that Americans are reluctant to admit any social hierarchy due to their political history. However, hierarchy is still possible even if the country’s legal framework provides equal protection. It is why Trump’s predecessors were never touched, even though they were far more evil than Trump. It was a tacit agreement within the ruling elite that kept the social peace.
Human instincts are always a battle between justice and order and balance. This is where realist compromises come from. Fiat justice, pereat mundus sounds great in theory but it’s often impossible to implement, especially when it leads to disorder, chaos and spirals of conflict.
Historical conflicts rarely occur under elite consensus. This is because, while we tend think that revolutions, civil conflict, and even civil wars can be fomented from grassroots movements (or almost never), they are rare.
These rifts are often between the ruling classes and a portion of surplus elites, which lead to the spiral. Oliver Cromwell was not a random proletarian. The American founding fathers were educated WASPs and largely quasi-aristocratic landholders. The Jacobins were mostly urban lawyers and the urban bourgeoisie. Robert E. Lee was an West Point officer. M.K. Gandhi, J.L. Gandhi, J.L. Lenin was known to have a sexy relationship with Russian feudal second-sons. always is an elite vanguard.
The situation can be seen from the perspective of detached historical neutrality. Trump is a “class traitor”. He tried to create a counterelite and broke the elite consensus. This was a violation of the Constitution and he was to set an example, even if it meant creating rifts, social strife or breaking up elite consensus.
Even the New York Times appeared a bit jumbled.
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It’s over. This taboo is now broken. This is a new precedent. It will not cause the country to fall apart as many feared after Watergate. It will be seen as victorious justice, similar to the way former leaders in developing countries are held by their successors at home and abroad. Or will it be a moment for reckoning, a sign of the fact that even the most powerful person on earth isn’t above the law?
We’ll see.
The threshold has been crossed by our republic. Historians have difficulty predicting the future because it is impossible to predict chaos. It is disservice to history to fail to see a pattern. The line was crossed. The future will tell where this leads.
