The United States has maintained a bipartisan approach to Europe since World War II. This policy is based upon an imagined trade-off. In exchange for NATO’s Article V protections protecting the continent, the U.S. can act as though Europe (both the individual countries and the whole of the European Union) is a vassal nation and does whatever America wishes.
This fantasy has been proven false by Russia’s invasion in Ukraine. The truth is that the E.U. The truth is that the E.U. supports the U.S. in American defense guarantees, while simultaneously cozying up to America’s competitors, whether they be Russian or Chinese.
Instead of recognizing how absurd this situation is, successive American presidents refused to accept more from those who expect so much of them. Europeans who have discussed their defense plans have been criticised, including from Donald Trump . He suggested that European countries should contribute to the NATO defense budget, before they pursue their own projects.
The Trump and Biden Administrations are both utterly confused about America’s policies toward China. They waffling over whether China is an enemy or a friend to ” Out-compete“. Why would the E.U. Risk economic storms to end ties with a country America can’t even call an enemy–while also knowing that America wouldn’t ever abandon them.
The American policy towards Europe worked well in the Cold War. But it’s delusional to believe it will work in the 21 century when the primary threat is on Eurasia. Both parties have kept the illusion going. With elements of foreign strategy realism being adopted by both GOP frontrunners there is now a chance for conservatives.
The American policy regarding Europe during the Cold War was simple: Keep it free from governmental anti-Americanism. This goal had the practical result of keeping the Germans and Russians out. The Europeans were delighted to add “…and Americans to this formulation and voilà: NATO was born.
There is no ideology that could make Europe an anti-American satellite. And there are cheaper and easier ways to protect Europe from anti-Americanism than what we’re doing right now. America can achieve this by using the centuries-old European fault-lines that have been reopened following the Russian invasion.
During the Invasion, a former quasi-alliance resurfaced: the alliance of France and Poland. This friendship has been evident throughout history. Napoleon revived a Polish state and the two countries were close allies during World War II and the 1930s. As with all international relations, it is driven by power politics. France long desired to be the dominant power in Europe and to rule Germany. Poland wants to continue to exist despite the historical threats from Russia and Germany. Although the latest iteration is less apparent than the previous one, partly due to Poland’s semipariah status within the E.U. France and Poland have unofficially teamed up to embarrass Germany by sending tanks to Ukraine as a result its conservatism.
America supported Germany in the post-war period over France. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose disastrous foreign policy incumbent Olaf Scholz was unlucky enough not to inherit, although he has not made any of his own jobs any easier with his inconsistent stance — was close with both George W. Bush (and Barack Obama). The E.U. should be kept in mind. This was logical from the perspective of keeping the E.U. The E.U. was not being turned around by the support of a power that didn’t want to be. America made Europe docile and down-graded by supporting a power that didn’t want to transform the E.U.
These things have changed. The position of Germany in post-war Europe was never weaker. Scholz’s polling results among the German public is poor. In addition, Germany’s incoherence on the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has irritated everyone and pleased no one, is a sign of how weak Germany’s position in post-war Europe. This is France’s and Poland’s chance to strike while the iron hots.
This is the perfect time for America to switch horses. They are not willing to do what America wants. They declared it unacceptable for America to consider moving its troops, which were protecting them from Russia, a country that they were happy to make deals with over American protests. They recently announced closer economic ties with China, and stated that no decoupling would occur. France’s opposition to China’s decoupling is not hypocritical. The nation has been hostile or ambivalent towards American defense since de Gaulle. Germany is weak, unpopular and cooperative.
Sign up today
Receive weekly emails to your inbox
How would America’s European policy be reformed? One option is to foster the France-Poland alliance within a stronger E.U. framework. America’s inborn hatred of the independent E.U. We should abandon the notion of a military force and embrace it instead. While a pan-European army may seem far off, France and Poland are pushing for the E.U. We should let Poland plant the seeds. It does all the work for us with a fraction of our commitment and cost. Franco-Polish-led E.U. will be more militarized. A more centralized E.U. China will have less influence on single states if the E.U. is more centralized.
This shift would be supported by America, which would boost its popularity in eastern Europe. Former Soviet-orbit countries would welcome the opportunity to join a continental army that would allow them to protect themselves from their great-power neighbours. The E.U. The E.U. has around 400 million people, nuclear weapons and a GDP that is close to the U.S. There is no reason why it should be militarized. Without the U.S. support for an independent E.U., Russia could not be handled. This bloc would ensure that such an alliance wouldn’t be definitively pro China, keeping anti-Americanism away from the Eurasia end and allowing the U.S. move its strategic focus towards the Pacific.
This would represent a radical rethinking of American foreign policy. Some neoconservatives may be concerned by the absence of “war for democracy”-style arguments, while some paleoconservatives may be worried about the lack of complete withdrawal from NATO. However, realignment requires new thinking. A start would be to adjust our policy towards Europe with an eye on France and Poland.
