Twenty-years after President George W. Bush directed U.S. troops to invade Iraq, we only now are beginning to see the results of that conflict. Who won? It’s not the United States.
The People’s Republic of China appears to be the victor. They have prudently avoided any involvement in the Iraq War. China chose diplomacy over a war-for-all. This effort is beginning to pay off.
Operation Iraqi Freedom was almost entirely about releasing the Iraqis, despite all of the propaganda that Bush and his lieutenants created. Its real purpose was to discredit any doubts about who is in control of the Persian Gulf. The humiliation caused by 9/11, when the United States was unable to defend itself against a brutal attack from nineteen hijackers, had put into question America’s regional primacy. Any nation or group that is tempted to take aim at the United States would be taught a valuable lesson by a quick and decisive victory over Saddam Hussein.
The Bush administration’s plan did not work. I won’t repeat the tangible costs that the United States incurred, including the thousands of U.S. casualties, the maimed and mutilated, and the trillions in dollars spent, all of which were without any benefit. It suffices to say that the U.S. invasion in Iraq ranks third in the current list of self-inflicted injuries, right behind the Soviet invasion into Afghanistan in 1979 and Saddam Hussein’s abbreviated annexation Kuwait in 1990.
The secondary effects of war are more difficult to quantify with precision. They include, at minimum, the destabilization and poisoning of American politics. Simply put, Donald Trump’s rise in national prominence and the emergence ISIS was made possible by the U.S. recklessness in waging this war.
China wisely chose to not interfere with America’s march towards folly, and now it finds itself in a position where it can benefit at Washington’s expense. Beijing’s success in brokering a deal involving Saudi Arabian and Iranian diplomats to restore diplomatic relations between these two countries is, according the New York Times one of the “topsiest, turviest developments anyone could have imagin.”
It could be another option, where China might be the smartest of all, leveraging to its advantage the chaos created by the U.S.-led pursuit of military hegemony over the Persian Gulf.
It remains to be seen if this China-led peace effort will result in anything even remotely similar to peace. The immediate psychological impact of this China-led peace initiative is still significant. The Timesreports that the Americans are “now on the sidelines” during a time of significant change, with the Chinese “suddenly transforming themselves into the new power player.”
This is a lot of hyperbole. What about the sidelines? Nonsense. The Pentagon has bases in the Middle East, while the Chinese have none. It is, however, offensive to the amourpropre American establishment to allow anyone but ourselves to take initiative in a region Washington routinely considers vitally important.
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Yet, it is worth asking the question: Could China’s unexpected demarche be a chance for Washington to consider? Perhaps it’s time to move on, twenty years after the United States invaded Iraq in war-like fashion with hopes of creating a regional order that would be beneficial to American interests and reflect American values. It may be time to reconsider the Persian Gulf’s importance to our security and prosperity.
China’s President Xi wants to take responsibility for eradicating the old animosities plaguing the region. Let’s give it a shot. China is far more dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf than we are.
It might be the perfect time to recognize the obvious at the twentieth anniversary of U.S. troop entry into Iraq. Let’s get out there and let Beijing have the chance to pay any price and bear any burden. It should be entertaining.
