Washington thinks this: For the “low price” of Ukrainian lives, and some American dollars the West can end Putin’s strategic threat against the United States. There are no Americans dying. It’s not the same as Afghanistan or Iraq ’01-’21. This is something postmodern, something new and a great power war. It’s Jackson Pollock for international relations, getting a lot of foreign-policy mojo at a low cost. It almost seems like we should have realized this sooner.
We did. The message is that it didn’t work in the long-term. Welcome to Afghanistan 1980s style, where the U.S. plays both the Soviet and American roles at times.
It all looks so familiar at first glance. Russia invades a country that was more or less doing its own thing. Russia’s goals are identical: To push its borders out of Western encroachment, on the one side, and to achieve world dominance on the other. The Russian victories on the battlefield in the early days of the war are overthrown and the U.S. looks for an opportunity to take advantage of the situation by sapping the Russians’ blood at their expense. The slogan of the day is “We’ll fight until the last Afghani.”
Through our “aligned” in Pakistan, the CIA floods Afghanistan with weapons and money. Although the tools may be different, the effect is the exact same: provide just enough firepower for the Bear to stay tied down and bleeding, but not enough to kill him. And, God forbid that we end this war that has been so lucrative–lots and lots of Russkis dead and zero Americans wounded. They may be a few but they are use-and-forget foreign policy types, CIA paramilitary, and special forces so it is not necessary to count them. Ironically, in both Afghanistan 1980s (and Ukraine 1980s), some money was spent by Saudi Arabia. You can see the thread here.
Let’s not forget the big differences that made Afghanistan successful, including the long Russian supply lines. Now let’s see what happened after those early successes.
NATO countries sent limited numbers of troops and materials to Afghanistan. However, the U.S. made Ukraine appear like a NATO member. Washington claimed to have pledged support for Ukraine in order to strengthen and preserve NATO, despite Ukraine not being a member. To keep Germany in the war, Washington ( , allegedly), conducted a covert assault on Germany’s vital civilian infrastructure. This will have long-lasting, negative effects on the German economy.
This allegation, along with the U.S. open treatment of NATO countries like supply dumps and nothing more, suggest that NATO will be broken when it emerges from Ukraine. It is also questionable why Washington is the center of concern and not Berlin, Brussels or Paris.
There are still questions about the future of America’s ability to leave Afghanistan. Ukraine was a basket-case country long before Russia invaded. This was in large part due to Western intervention in its internal affairs.
A comedian and TV producer, President Zelensky was portrayed by the West as a cross of Bono and Churchill. His anti-establishment image, and promises to fight corruption and improve Ukraine’s economy are what gave him his popularity. He won the Ukrainian presidential election in 2019. The Ukrainian Revolution, also known by the Euromaidan Revolution (also known as the Euromaidan Revolution), was his predecessor. It began in 2013 and culminated in a series protests against Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal to sign an association agreement with Europe. Instead, he wanted to build closer ties to Russia.
Protests escalated in intensity and size, with protestors occupying Kiev’s central Maidan Nezalezhnosti Square demanding Yanukovych’s resignation and new elections. The situation escalated in February 2014 when Yanukovych’s security force cracked down on protesters. This led to violent clashes that resulted in the deaths of many. Yanukovych fled the Ukraine, and a new government was established in Ukraine. This revolution sparked tensions with Russia. Russia annexed Crimea, and then supported separatists from eastern Ukraine.
These problems will not disappear even if Russia’s army returns to pre-invasion boundaries. It is shallow to think that this is all there is, other than a land grab by Putin.
What’s left? There are concerns about corruption in Ukraine and how the United States can help. There have been numerous reports of corruption and mismanagement, despite significant American financial assistance to Ukraine. Many have claimed that the U.S. has failed to adequately address these issues and instead has turned a blindeye to its strategic interests in the area. America’s history of dumping nearly unlimited amounts of money and arms into developing countries and corruption is not good. This was evident again in Afghanistan in the 1980s edition or after the Bush invasion. It’s only going to get worse.
The fear of arms proliferation in Afghanistan, where weapons are being moved off the battlefield to the wrong hands, is a major concern. There are a lot of weapons in Ukraine, whether it’s a container of rifles and the most recent anti-aircraft system. Stinger missiles capable of shooting down modern aircraft and ending up in terrorist hands were the real threat in Afghanistan. Since then, the U.S. has pursued these missiles through all of the world’s arms markets.
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It’s worse in Ukraine. America’s most powerful air-defense tools against Iranian and Russian air assets are being used. What would these countries pay for telemetry data from a shootdown? Or actual hardware to reverse engineer or program against? Russia, China, Iran, and other intelligence agencies are likely to be on the ground in Ukraine, carrying suitcases filled with money, trying to get as much as possible. Another cost of war.
It’s also difficult to see the endgame as Putin’s demise. This would suggest that the strategy is to not fight until the end of the last Afghani/Ukrainian, but to fight till the end of the last Russian. It is the plan to make that last straw, that last Russian die, in order to overthrow Putin. But who? It seems like a small gain to trade Putin for a Russian military-led government. Take a look at what happened last time Russia had a radical change in government. We got Putin. It was the Taliban in Afghanistan.
The history suggests that the U.S. will lose in Ukraine in many ways. But, there is a fun question: Who will succeed Putin? And why would we believe that Putin will be more appealing to the U.S. It’s like watching someone gamble drunk.
