Friday marked one-year since the Russian invasion began in Ukraine. The occasion is a double-edged knife for Ukraine and its supporters: Ukraine has not surrendered yet, but as the conflict continues, an ironic victory by Ukraine becomes less likely.
The latest issue of American Conservative featured Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, and the flag of his country that is discreetly transformed into a Russian flag. Ted Galen Carpenter’s story, which inspired this cover, explains how a prolonged conflict, no matter how valiantly they may have fought to this point in Ukraine, ultimately works against them.
Carpenter uses an interesting historical analogy to illustrate his point. Carpenter chooses to compare the conflict in Ukraine with an older example where the opposing side would have won if it didn’t become prolonged, such as the Nazi invasion and occupation of the Soviet Union in World War II. He also compares the current conflict to the American Civil War. However, Carpenter admits that history is more likely than not to repeat itself, which makes the comparison seem oddly appropriate.
It is well worth the effort. Here’s a sample:
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The North’s inherent strengths became more important as America’s internecine war dragged on into its third and fourth years. The Union-respected states were more populous than those that joined the Confederacy and had more industrialization. In 1861, the North had 22 million inhabitants, while the South had only 8 million. Nearly a third of those were slaves. The North also had a much larger railroad network to transport troops and supplies. These factors would eventually lead to insurmountable military supremacy.
These advantages were not evident nor critical in the initial stages of war. With their superior officer corps, Confederate forces were able outmaneuver and outgeneral their opponents and win major battles on the field. This was especially true for the first battle at Manassas, and the decisive Confederate victories of Fredericksburg (December 1862) and Chancellorsville (May 1863). The Confederacy was seen in the South as a setback, even the impasse at Sharpsburg (Antietam), September 1862.
This is what the situation in Ukraine right now looks like. The fact that Ukraine has fought Russia to a stalemate instead of being steamrolled by the Russian military in a matter weeks and forcing Ukraine into surrendering part of its territory, is seen by both the Ukrainian government as well as its western backers as proof that a Ukrainian victory may be on the horizon. Although Ukraine has performed better than both Russian and American expectations, the goal of fighting Russia to a standstill is not achievable. It has given Zelensky’s Ukraine as well as the pro-Ukrainian West so many confidences that these leaders speak as if a Ukrainian win is a fait accompli.
However, Russia will ultimately win in a prolonged stalemate just as the Union won the American Civil War. These realities will become more evident as the conflict enters its second-year. This writer’s only hope for the year is that Ukraine will weaken and that the United States will respond by calling for peace negotiations, not Patriot missiles.
