Is Europe at risk?
The United Kingdom has led the charge against Russia in Ukraine for months. hired a Beatles tribute group when Liz Truss was foreign secretary. She was recently removed as prime minister. Boris Johnson, then-Prime Minister, was even more aggressive when visiting Ukraine. He mimicked Winston Churchill’s biography. London’s message was “Follow Me!”
It was all a show. Johnson called for NATO allies to “dig deeply” on defense , but refused increase British military expenditures. Although he promised to do this in the future, the true value of his promises was often heavily discounted. Rishi Sunak, Johnson’s chancellor at the exchequer refused to support increasing military expenditures to 3 percent GDP. According to the Times report, Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of Exchequer, was “considering maintaining defense spending at around 2 percent until 2026-27 but committing to significantly increasing it to reach the target of 3 percent by 2030.”
Future commitments are meaningless, of course. Hunt survived the purge of Prime Minister Sunak, and is still budget chief. However, he has not supported higher military expenditures. Sunak, however, suggested the contrary when he called Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, to indicate London’s continued support for Kiev.
Unnamed Ukrainian claimed that Sunak had said “virtually nothing” about Europe’s defense except that budget cuts would be made. Other observers expect similar reductions. Ben Judah, the Atlantic Council’s Ben Judah, stated that Sunak was focused on the balance of London’s books. “He’s interested” in Britain’s economy, finances, Britain’s ability to be a kind of start-up nation… and stabilizing markets during difficult times.
Even if Sunak promised higher military spendings, British politics are anything but stable. It is unlikely that Sunak and his Cabinet will survive the next two-year elections. The Labor Party would likely win if the vote were held today. Even if Sunak wins a second term for the Conservatives budget demands and political needs would prevail over any promises that were not enforceable today.
The new government believes that London’s budget woes require defense cuts. The U.S. financial situation is much worse. Yet, Americans are expected to bail out almost everyone on Earth as Washington rushes towards fiscal Armageddon.
Take the Biden administration. It just announced that the deficit was “only” $1.4B in the fiscal year 2022, which ended September 30, and it is looking forward to good times. The president said that this was great news, as it was only half of the deficit from the previous year. As if the president were a modern Horatius at Bridge, one can imagine him heroically protecting the federal Treasury against the pillagers and looters who had taken over Washington.
The fourth largest amount of red ink in American history was last year. It trailed only the 2020 and 2021 which were filled by Covid bailouts and the 2009 that was accumulated during the financial crisis. The decline in red ink from last year was due to the end of the Covid pandemic and not an abrupt surge of federal fiscal sobriety.
Maya MacGuineas is the president of The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. stated that “We borrowed $1.4 Trillion last year.” This isn’t an achievement, it’s just a reminder of how fragile our fiscal situation remains.
The president actually wanted to spend more. The original “subsidize everybody on earth with everything plus a kitchen sink” version was blocked by the Democrats. This would have allowed more money to be funneled into Washington’s usual suspects. The president was able to still hope to pass the Full Monty bill despite his proposal being broken apart.
The national debt owed to the public–which excludes the fake Treasury borrowing from the Social Security Administration–already has hit 100 percent of GDP and is heading toward the record 106 percent set in 1946 after World War II. According to the Congressional Budget Office , the ratio could reach 185 percent by midcentury if Congress doesn’t make serious deficit cuts. This is about as likely as Donald Trump kissing Hillary Clinton.
Over time, the accumulated red ink is only going to get worse. Warning CBO: “High interest debt as a percentage GDP could slow economic growth, increase interest payments to foreign holders U.S. government debt, raise the risk of a financial crisis, increase the likelihood of less abrupt adverse consequences, make the U.S. fiscal situation more vulnerable to an increased interest rate, and cause lawmakers more constrained in making policy choices.
This future is looming. So why does the U.S. spend so much on military spending than Europe? Why does America send so many troops to Europe? Why is Washington providing more assistance to Ukraine than Europe? Will the Europeans keep their word?
Silly question. Never is the answer, at least for as long as America rushes in. The Europeans don’t think so. Europeans should not be able to ignore the needs of America’s hawkish members of Congress and presidents. Russia’s invasion in Ukraine has not changed this.
Many European governments declared impulsively that they would increase military expenditures after the shock of war. Washington quickly stepped in and added troops and cash. The United States didn’t insist on Europeans taking the lead, but rather handed the bill to American taxpayers. This was when the continent began to adapt. The United Kingdom made promises that would be kept well into the future. They will soon be forgotten and discarded. Germany redefined these promises and other governments stopped talking of big increases.
This is a fundamental problem. Even though Ukraine is in terrible combat, most Europeans don’t feel threatened. They expect America to protect them.
In fact, in a survey that showed positive attitudes towards NATO, the majority of Europeans surveyed did not want to help their neighbor. Unsurprisingly, more Europeans believed that the U.S. would help them than they did supporting their European neighbours. Only would support their neighbor militarily, only third of Germans. This was because they were more secure in the Cold War thanks to other countries’ garrisons. A smaller number of people in other countries supported fulfilling their allied obligations and expected Americans to come to their aid.
Washington’s unfailing commitment to Europe’s defense continues even though the U.S. is still in the Middle East and expected to provide bodyguards to the pampered royals of Riyadh or Abu Dhabi. Despite the fact that the Saudi regime treats America’s president with contempt, Washington continues to arm the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while they murder and mayhem the poorest nation in the region: Yemen. U.S. troops are illegally occupying territory in Syria and mimicking ISIS in pirating the nation’s oil. They also target Iranian, Russian, Syrian forces.
China is now more dangerous than ever since Xi Jinping has consolidated power. While he would prefer peace to achieve his goals, including the absorption Taiwan, many doubt his willingness and ability to use force. Washington could and would find itself in any conflict alone. While a Europe that doesn’t defend itself will not fight Beijing, neither South Korea or Japan want to be permanent targets of their large neighbor, no matter how friendly they may make it seem today.
Russia’s attack against Ukraine was unjust, and Washington rightly supported Kiev in its defense. But, the defense of Ukraine is more important to Europe than America’s. European governments have spent decades riding cheaply on the U.S. and should have taken the initiative, doing more to support Kiev as well as bolster their defenses.
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Washington “to lead” doesn’t mean they did not. This phrase is perhaps the most misused and repeated by U.S. officials who travel the world needlessly sacrificing American lives, wealth and lives. But Washington should inform European officials that Washington will be doing less in its efforts to control the U.S. finances and revive its economy. This should start with withdrawing the additional U.S. troops that rushed to Europe following Moscow’s invasion. Observers had envisioned a quick Russian victory, threats against other countries and a reduction in financial aid to Kiev.
The Europeans will be furious that the timing wasn’t right. However, America’s defense dependents won’t believe that any transfer of responsibility to them is convenient. The U.S. cannot wait to take hard steps to reduce its perpetual budget deficit. This is a great opportunity to change Washington’s fiscal priorities with the upcoming congressional elections.
The Europeans have always put themselves first and assumed America would always be there for them. Even though war is raging on their continent, they refuse take their defense seriously. Ukraine is primarily a crisis that affects Europe and not the U.S. It is past time for American officials and citizens to prioritize the American people.
