Michael A. Horowitz is a geopolitical analyst and the head of intelligence for Le Beck.
After a winter campaign that left the Kremlin military stretched and depleted, he said, it is crucial that this reduces the area that they need to defend on the front lines.
Horowitz stated that by blowing up the Dam, Russia would remove one of its key offensive vectors from the equation.
The Ukrainian government agreed. Mykhailo Podolyak, the presidential adviser, accused Russia of blowing the dam up with the “obvious goal” of “creating obstacles for offensive actions by the armed forces.”
According to two U.S. and one Western official, the U.S. government is armed with intelligence that suggests Russia was behind the attack.
Could Ukraine have been the culprit?
Russia claimed that Ukraine destroyed the dam in order to divert attention from its “choking counteroffensive”, while Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that it may allow Kyiv to move its units away from the Kherson Front Line to where they are more needed.
Bloggers who support the war in Russia have suggested that the destruction of the dam will benefit Ukraine, as the areas under Russian control would be the ones most affected by the disruption to mine barriers and frontline positions.
Analysts agreed that Russia’s defenses, which it had been building up over months, would be attacked. However they did not see a specific motive for Ukraine.
Horowitz stated that both sides have something to lose.
He said that the floods would have a devastating impact on the settlements of areas under Russian control. For Kyiv “this is a disaster for the environment, as well as the possibility of losing one major source of energy in the south of Ukraine.”
Some analysts questioned whether the Russian forces were responsible for the incident or if it was a case of careless negligence.
Experts raised concerns in the months before the breach about the dam’s damage and warned of the reservoir being too full due to heavy rains and melting snow.
“In that case, it would be a disaster for everyone,” said Frank Ledwidge. He is a lecturer on military strategy at the University of Portsmouth, in Britain, and a retired military intelligence officer.
What is the status of war now?
Kyiv’s plans are secret, so it’s hard to say how the disaster will affect Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
The fallout of the collapsed dam could hinder planned ground assaults and force Ukraine to focus its attention and resources on recovery.
“One imagines that they knew this was a possible scenario,” said Phillips O’Brien a professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland.
The muddy and wet conditions on the ground have probably already delayed Ukraine’s offensive, as heavy equipment has difficulty traversing a large area.
O’Brien stated that “now, just as this was beginning, it could leave vast areas swamped forever.” If that was the intention, then it makes it much more difficult.
