The U.S. may not have a military drone as the only missing element in the Black Sea .
This week’s dramatic encounter between Russian fighter jets drew attention to the body water at the center of the war with Ukraine.
It also raised a security concern for Washington and its allies. Is there a clear strategy to secure a waterway that has been central in the rivalry between Moscow, West and is now a major flashpoint.
Former military officers and lawmakers said that the answer is particularly concerning because a deal to allow critical grain supplies to leave Ukraine’s ports on Black Sea was in the balance, and Russia’s fleet uses this area as a launchpad and launchpad for attack against Ukrainian cities.
Conflict depths
Some call the Black Sea “a potential powder keg” and it is slightly larger than California. It has six NATO member countries: Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, and Ukraine. These countries are considered U.S. allies, but not members of the alliance.
Then there’s Russia.
The U.S. once helped its allies to match its presence in Black Sea, and conducted exercises there. However, when it became clear that the Russians were planning to invade Ukraine, the Biden administration pulled American vessels from the area. Turkey has now stopped warships entering the sea through Bosphorus Strait. This is a control area that it can close during wartimes.
The U.S. does not have the means to recover it. It claimed it was brought down in the Black Sea by a Russian fighter plane that collided with it on Tuesday.
“It shows the lack of a holistic approach to a region which is important, not only to our allies but also to the countries bordering on the Black Sea,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said to NBC News about America’s reduced military role in the region.
The U.S. doesn’t have a ship to recover the wreckage from the area. Turkey is the NATO ally closest to the Black Sea that has a navy strong enough to approach the crash site.
General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters Wednesday that it was unlikely there would be much debris left to recover. He said that the drone had been walking to an area with depths as high as 5,000 feet. The U.S. military had made sure that all its data banks had been deleted.
Russia blamed the U.S. and denied that their jet came in contact with the drone, accusing Washington of provocative surveillance within Russian airspace.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made increasing Moscow’s presence a priority by annexeing the Crimean Peninsula. This historic home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and a foundation of the Kremlin’s ability to project power across the region, and having long interfered in the affairs of neighboring countries such as Georgia.
Shaheen, who is the Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Europe, Regional Security Cooperation and Others, said that the drone incident this week highlighted the need for the U.S. to develop a strategy to defend the Black Sea.
Shaheen, who was at NATO’s airbase in Romania last month, decided to reintroduce the bill with Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). The bill would require that the Biden administration produce an interagency strategy in 180 days in order to strengthen U.S. military and economic ties with the countries of the region.
Shaheen stated that there has been a lot of bipartisan interest in it due to the war in Ukraine, the drone incident, and what’s going on with shipping lanes. It’s clear how crucial the region is. “And most countries that border the Black Sea have been our allies. It’s crucial now for us show our support to our allies.”
Requests for comment were not answered by the State Department or National Security Council.
What is the weakest point in the water?
Ex-national security officials who worked in the region have said that the U.S. investment in the Black Sea is not sufficient to match its strategic importance. They stated that Western activity in the area began to decline after Moscow took Crimea, despite NATO rhetoric.
Glen Grant, an ex-british officer who served as a military consultant and trainer for Ukraine and Bulgaria in the past, stated that NATO’s eastern flank is at risk because of the Black Sea.
He stated that there is no NATO presence on the Black Sea because of the weakness and intransigence Turkey and Bulgaria. “Because that, there is no NATO presence in the Black Sea.”
NATO officials, who requested anonymity to discuss freely, stressed that the Black Sea region was of “strategic significance” to the alliance. They noted that NATO members had strengthened NATO’s presence as a response to the Kremlin’s Crimea annexed in 2014 and the full-scale invasion by Ukraine last year.
According to the official, NATO has conducted more air policing missions from Romania and Bulgaria, put more missile and air defense systems in Turkey and Romania, and established new battlegroups within the region.
Steven Horrell, an ex-U.S. Naval Intelligence Officer, studies the region for Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. He said that Turkey, which serves as NATO’s southern bulwark, and has one the most powerful militaries within the alliance, “has to be central” to any strategy regarding Black Sea.
He said that the U.S. should find a way of making it a more reliable partner, as Washington develops closer ties with countries like Romania and Bulgaria.
As the presidents of Romanian and Bulgaria met in Sofia, there appeared to have been some progress toward greater cooperation. They signed a pact on Wednesday to strengthen ties.
Horrell stated that “We must rely on the NATO allies [Bulgaria Romania and Turkey] as well as the Black Sea states to lead.” It was difficult for them to unite in the same voice as the Baltic States.
Requests for comment were not received from the foreign ministries of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria.
