All this makes me feel bad.
It’s hard to not admire Volodymyr Zelensky. One of the three Great Powers in the world, the Russians, should have been able quickly to take over Ukraine. They haven’t, and this is largely due to Zelensky’s leadership. It could be argued that this is due to the US and other Western countries sending weapons, which would be true. Without Zelensky, the symbol of Ukrainian resistance and heroism, would America have sent so many weapons? Or would Ukraine be able to continue its fight so long? I doubt it. Credit where credit is due. This man is a national hero for his people.
Yet.
Zelensky stated in his speech that Russia will strike other American allies “it’s only a matter time” if they don’t stop us now. He stated earlier that Russia’s aggression is not an issue in the world. This is false and manipulative. This sounds like the “if they don’t fight them where, we will have them here” line used by the Bush Administration to justify its unjust and foolish war in Iraq. Although he is fighting for his country’s survival from unjust Russian aggression, I can’t fault him for using such language. But it’s still manipulative. America’s interests are not in the same league as President Zelensky’s.
Zelensky calls out for “absolute victor”, which, according to Ukrainians, means total capture of Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine and Crimean peninsula. Russia annexed them earlier. It is impossible. That is impossible. It is impossible. It is not possible.
You should watch the Zelensky speech, which I hope you did. Also, this Freddy Sayers interview featuring Prof. John Mearsheimer (the foreign-policy realist) is worth watching. It will be embedded here. After Zelensky’s speech it will sound positively grinchy, but it is absolutely essential to understand how and why this conflict began, and how it’s likely it’ll continue.
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Mearsheimer patiently explains Washington’s role in establishing the conditions for the war. At 19:40, he explains how we are in an impasse. “We’re screwed,” Mearsheimer says. Because neither Russia nor America can sustain a loss at this point. Mearsheimer emphasizes that nuclear weapons could be used on the battlefield, and we need to understand this. Although he doesn’t believe it is likely at the moment, he believes there is a non-trivial possibility that Russia could deploy battlefield nukes in an emergency. Gray is told by Mearsheimer that even though the probability of Russia using nuclear weapons in the future is only 5%, it’s still too high a risk to deal with such apocalyptic weapons. He’s right.
We should be working towards peace. Russia and Ukraine won’t be satisfied with any settlement. According to my view, peace could be possible if Ukraine gave up its claims on its eastern territories and Crimea (where Russia’s Black Sea fleet docks), in return for security guarantees. The US should also give up their insistence that Ukraine join NATO. Mearsheimer believes it is absurd to believe that Russia poses an invasion risk to western Europe. It can’t even take over Ukraine! It is also absurd for the United States to believe that Russia has any legitimate interest in stopping Ukraine joining NATO, as per the “Monroe Doctrine.” That’s correct. It does not mean Ukraine should be made a puppet of Moscow. However, it does indicate that Russia cannot stand by while Ukraine ally with its enemy.
Yesterday, I had coffee with an Hungarian friend. He was thinking about the pain that war had caused his country. It’s nothing in comparison to the suffering of the Ukrainian people… but it’s still not small. Hungarians are in very difficult economic times and face a harsh winter. They are unable to pay their high utility bills. Yesterday, I spoke with Kale Zelden (TAC podcast partner), who said that the Americans have no idea of how difficult this war has been for Europeans. Would Americans be willing to continue the money pipeline to Kyiv if they were forced to experience what Hungarians and others are going through now? It’s a doubtful possibility. When you don’t feel the costs of continuing the war, it’s simple to place the Ukrainian flag on your front porch.
Take a look at these:
According to Senator Republicans’ leader, the most pressing challenge facing America is to send more money to Ukraine. Not the huge crisis at America’s southern border that Washington has shown no interest in solving. Not the drug addiction crisis (fentanyl), that is threatening so many Americans. Growing wealth inequality and other structural economic issues are not causing youth to live in materially worse conditions than their parents. China is America’s true geopolitical competitor. Not rising crime. Not the division of Americans by elites based on race and racial advantage, or the systematic discrimination against Americans based on race. Not the ongoing campaign to queer America’s children, which is driven in large part in part by woke capitalism.
(On this front, just this morning, an European friend texted me with the information that a close friend from high-school moved to California some time ago. He also let my friend know that his (the California immigrant) daughter wants to become a boy. My Euro friend shared some more stories of American friends who have been affected by the woke-gender virus with me. One of my Euro pals has undergone surgery, is now on hormones and will depend on pharmaceuticals for her entire life. Another woman is on the same track. My friend said, “If I were you, I’d leave the US to move to a country where this madness can be called what it is: madness.”
All of these things are occurring in America to Americans but none of it matters to the Republican leadership as much Ukraine. History will show that even though their country was in turmoil, the Republican leadership was more interested than ever in waging a proxy war against Russia, which, surprise, actually enriches defense contractors.
This thread is great. Excerpts.
We the People will continue to allow our leaders to behave as they do. We have pot, and we have porn. Most of our children don’t have the burden of paying for the Empire’s wars.
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But what happens if the money runs dry? What do you call an Empire governed by people like Mitch McConnell who put Empire above Nation? Because they are more concerned with restoring and protecting Ukraine’s borders from Russian intruders, our national leaders won’t secure our southern border. Washington’s interests do not align with the American people’s, in my opinion. This can’t last forever. Adam Smith famously observed that “there’s a lot to ruin in a country” — which means that a nation could sustain a lot more destruction than it collapses. We are well on our way. All of this does not diminish the courage and canny displayed by President Zelensky. However, it does challenge the faith one has in America’s ruling class.
Mearsheimer is right: “We are screwed.”
